Money Supply Update

The adjusted monetary base has been flat or even declining a little in the last several months.  The explosion in the monetary base occurred almost 2 years ago.  The chart is here:

The excess reserves held by commercial banks has practically mimicked the monetary base.  The chart is here:[1][id]=EXCRESNS&s[1][range]=1yr

The rise in gold does not seem to be because of imminent price inflation.  Perhaps it is based on fear that there will be severe price inflation once the banks start to lend.  We'll continue to look at these charts.  If the excess reserves start dropping rapidly without the monetary base falling, then we should look for price inflation to follow.  The same could be said if the monetary base increases but the excess reserves don't.

It is important to pay attention to what is actually happening instead of what is being reported.  We had high monetary inflation 2 years ago, but the banks have kept that money out of the system.  The Fed is not inflating now.  Perhaps the Fed will start again soon, but we can't be certain until it actually happens.