Adjusted Monetary Base as of May 19, 2011

You can view the short-term chart of the adjusted monetary base here:

It had pulled back slightly for a few weeks, but it has resumed up.  It should go up some more through the end of June at which time "QE2" is set to expire.

We should continue to monitor this closely.  The Fed is playing with fire here.  The central bankers must really be scared of falling back in to recession (if we ever actually got out).

It will be even more interesting to see what happens after June.  I think it will depend on price inflation and the overall economy.  If price inflation picks up even more, then we should expect the Fed to stop expanding the monetary base for a while.  If the economy turns down again and unemployment starts going back up, then we should expect more money creation.

The most interesting scenario will be when we have high price inflation along with a down economy.  Then the Fed will really have to choose on whether to save the economy or save the dollar.  The economic crash will come eventually.  We just don't know when it will be and how big it will be.