Live by the Fed, Die by the Fed

There is a saying that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take away everything you have.  In this particular case, we can modify that to say that a Federal Reserve that has a monetary policy to let the good times roll, will also have a monetary policy to bring on the crash.

After the FOMC released its statement on June 19 and Bernanke spoke, the markets were spooked.  Stocks, bonds, and commodities all took a nosedive.  That was last week.  This week, heads of the regional Fed banks are coming out to smooth things over.  The latest person was William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Dudley said, "If labor market conditions and the economy's growth momentum were to be less favorable than in the FOMC's outlook - and this is what has happened in recent years - I would expect that the asset purchases would continue at a higher pace for longer."

The Dow finished the day up in triple digits.  The same thing happened the day before when the first quarter GDP numbers were revised downward.  It signaled that the economy is still struggling.  Investors liked this news because it meant that we would likely see more monetary inflation by the Fed.

We know that something isn't right in the world when the stock market is going up because of bad news with the economy.  It seems like the whole thing is built up by the Fed.  But this also means that the whole thing will come crashing down one day, if and when the Fed halts, or even slows down, its digital money printing.

In the short term, I have no idea if stocks are going to go up or down.  It is anybody's guess.  It is so highly dependent upon the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the establishment, that it almost doesn't seem worth gambling on.  If you are going to own stocks, I would recommend that you either own specific stocks for specific reasons, or else you simply limit yourself to a 25% maximum as part of your permanent portfolio.

If we all of a sudden see a small spike in price inflation, we could quickly see interest rates go higher and stocks tumble.  So much of the stock market is built up by funny money right now, it is hard to trust it at all.  Specific words coming out of Bernanke's mouth or other Fed officials can cause your investment portfolio to go up or down in wild swings.  There is something truly wrong when just a few individuals can speak and control the market of a country with over 300 million people.  In fact, it really affects the entire world.

In conclusion, I would be very careful about putting money in the stock market to speculate.  It is not always true that what goes up must come down.  But when it is built on artificial stimulus, it is likely to hold true.